Why Has Manafort Become A Focus In The Collusion Investigation?

Though Manafort’s time on the Trump campaign ended up lasting fewer than five months (from late March to mid-August 2016), it was both an eventful period and a crucial one for Trump/Russia activity.

• This was when the campaign pivoted from the primary election to the general, in which finding a way to defeat Hillary Clinton would be the top priority.
• In early June, Donald Trump Jr. received an email in which his acquaintance Rob Goldstone offered to set up a meeting in which he’d receive incriminating information on Hillary Clinton “as part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.”
• Trump Jr. forwarded along the email thread about the meeting to Manafort and Jared Kushner, and invited them to it. That meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya and potential spy Rinat Akhmetshin took place on June 9, 2016, with Manafort (and Kushner) in attendance. The parties involved have claimed the meeting was a dud that led nowhere. Per NBC News, Manafort’s notes on the meeting ‘included the word "donations" near a reference to the Republican National Committee,’ though the full context there remains unclear.
• In July, Manafort oversaw the Republican National Convention. As the party platform was being put together the week before, some controversy spilled out into the pressover whether Trump staffers pushed to water down an aggressive anti-Russia amendment calling for the arming of Ukraine. But there hasn’t been any indication that Manafort was personally involved, and this whole controversy seems to have been somewhat exaggerated. (The preexisting platform wasn’t changed, but a Cruz supporter’s proposed amendment was modified before being added to it.)
• In late July, WikiLeaks posted thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee. The dumps, which showed certain DNC staffers saying unfriendly things about Bernie Sanders, were perfectly timed to cause chaos at the Democratic convention the following week. US intelligence agencies later said the DNC hack was the work of the Russian government.

So one obvious question Mueller is pursuing is whether there was any follow-up to the meeting Trump Jr. set up. (He’s said there wasn’t.) Given the timeline, another question that comes to mind is whether Manafort had any knowledge about the email hackings (something he has denied).

However, another reason Manafort may be a major focus of the investigation now is that he appears to be in legal jeopardy on a whole other set of matters that actually took place before the Trump campaign even began — meaning Mueller could potentially have powerful leverage to get Manafort to cooperate.

What’s the latest on the investigation?

The FBI’s early morning raid of Manafort’s house for documents in late July underscored that he is facing very serious legal jeopardy.

“It suggests to me that the investigation as to Manafort is far along at this stage,” says Mariotti, the former prosecutor. “The fact that a search warrant was issued tells us that a judge has probable cause to believe that a crime was committed and that evidence for that crime would be located at the home of Paul Manafort.”

And in recent weeks, there have been reports that Mueller’s team has been sending out subpoena after subpoena to people tied to Manafort — from PR firms that Manafort has worked with, to his former lawyer, and even to his current spokesperson.

It is possible, of course, that Mueller could come away from all this empty handed. But reading the tea leaves, it seems more likely now that we are headed toward one of two outcomes — either Mueller will recommend charges be filed against Manafort, or Manafort will strike a cooperation deal with Mueller’s team.

Now, much will come down to the specifics. How strong is the evidence Mueller has gathered against Manafort? Does Manafort even have useful information to offer Mueller on the collusion matter?

Or might Manafort prefer not to give up any incriminating information about the president of the United States or people close to him — perhaps in hopes of a presidential pardon?

It’s not clear, though, that even that would get Manafort off the hook. Politico has reportedthat Mueller’s team has begun working with New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who had been conducting his own investigation of Manafort’s finances.

The significance of that is that President Trump would theoretically be able to pardon Manafort for any federal offense — but not state offenses. So as long as the prospect of state charges are hanging over Manafort’s head, he could well have a powerful incentive to cooperate.

-  Andrew Prokop

My take: I guess you've noticed the Manafort end of this investigation has not come to a head yet. Get ready.